I hope you all have enjoyed your summer! I for one have! I did get quite a bit of work done over the summer, but I did make sure to take time for myself, and my kids. But, as September rolls on, and we get back on routine, it is worth taking a look at how the market fared over the summer months…

 

Many of you may remember I made some predictions heading into Q3, which you can view here. But how did I do… Well, the results are in!

 

 

1 - New Listings will total less than 400 in July & August 

 

Ya… I missed this one… And by quite a bit… The total new listings for July and August were 512 (267+245). I was off by about 20%… This was a little shocking to me, but it shouldn’t have been. We saw numbers more in line with what we say during the early days of a spring market, in March & April. The drop did however follow the historical trend, of new listings dropping between 20% & 30% from May and June. I think this had a lot to do with people trying to get out in front of the transitioning market, and sell properties they wanted to offload before a more significant drop in values. In hindsight, I should not have been so pessimistic about this number… I should not have gotten this wrong, as if I had calculated base on the % drop in new listings, I would have been pretty bang on…

 

 

2 - Number of Sales will be strong(er) as compared to New Listings

 

I nailed this one! Although sales dropped in each of the months, with 215 sales in July and 186 in August (as compared to 258 & 234 in May and June respectively), the differential between New Listings and Sales narrowed considerably! June saw 133 more new listings than sales, where that number dropped to 52 in July & 59 in August. Sales numbers were in fact strong as compared to new listings.

 

I had said this summer was an opportunity for buyers to negotiate a little on price, with average prices going down and interest rates going up. It’s my feeling that many people did in fact take advantage… I know some of my clients did…

 

 

3 - Average Price $ will go Down compared to Q1 & Q2

 

In all fairness, this was the easiest prediction to make… Average Price always goes down in the summer months. This is largely driven by buyer behaviours, and the demographics at play. Many (if not most!) of the buyers in the upper price points simply are not putting their houses on the market in the summer months, nor are they shopping for a new home. They are out enjoying the summer with their families. If they are in the market, it is usually for a secondary property like a cottage or recreational property. The summer market is driven much more by first-time and step-up buyers, and therefore we see more activity in the lower price points of our market.

 

Average price for July was $442,584, whereas August was $440,408. I had predicted within a reasonable margin of 450k, which was already a significant drop from the roughly 500k average price we had seen for the first half of 2022. I predict this will go up slightly in September and October.

 

 

So… I went 2 for 3! Not bad, but should have been 3 for 3… Hindsight being what it is, I should have known the new listing numbers would have been stronger than I predicted…

 

 

What are we going to see to finish off Q3?

 

We are going to see things level off in the autumn months, and then drop as we head into the winter months. Easy enough to predict, as that is the trend pretty much every year… We are going to see average price in September come in higher than July/August, but only slightly… I think we will see an average price in September a little more in line with what the average price for 2022 will end up being, which is between 260k and 275k. If pressed for a specific answer,.. I will say average price for September is going to be right around 265k, but could come in a tad higher or lower. 

 

Buyers will continue to drive the market. Overall, my feeling is the typical house is down about 10%/12% from the peak of Q1. I have also found that in a lot of cases, seller expectations have come down a little, and that we are able to put deals together that are fair to both buyer and seller. I have actually been able to use the state of the market to put some excellent deals together for buyers at significantly lower prices than what was being asked (65k under in one case!). So, from that perspective, don’t be afraid to put out an offer on a house you like, even if you don’t like the listing price. You may just surprise yourself and buy a house!

 

 

What’s on tap for September? Lake City Realty will be hosting a Client Appreciation event! Join us Sunday September 18th at the Jungle Gym in the South End from 130PM to 330PM. To ensure an opportunity for everyone to enjoy, we are asking to register for one of the 1-hour blocks. There is no cost whatsoever, and snack will be provided, so please register and come and join us!

 

Link for 1:30-2:30: 

https://forms.gle/jF6hHwrmVQka8dqv7

 

Link for 2:30-3:30:

https://forms.gle/Eornz9Dsrr4qditk7

 

And don’t forget about the Great Pumpkin Hunt coming in October at Kivi park! More details to come!

 

 

That’s all for now! Thanks for reading! Keep an eye out for a new blog post before the end of the month, where I will be making my Q4 predictions!

 

Until next time!