
The Bank of Canada holds at 1.75% on December 5, 2018. A fresh oil-price shock interrupts the tightening outlook.
The decision at a glance
| Policy measure | Announcement |
|---|---|
| Overnight target | 1.75% |
| Change | No change |
| Bank Rate | 2.00% |
| Deposit rate | 1.50% |
A fresh oil-price shock interrupts the tightening outlook
Oil prices have fallen sharply since October, and western Canadian prices face additional pressure from transportation limits and excess inventories. With production being cut, the Bank expects materially weaker energy activity than previously forecast. Growth was on track in the third quarter, but momentum appears softer heading into the fourth.
Business investment fell during the third quarter amid trade uncertainty. The Bank expects non-energy investment to improve with the trade agreement, federal tax measures and capacity pressures, but the speed of that recovery remains important. Household credit and housing markets appear to be stabilizing after a significant slowdown.
Core inflation is tracking 2%, and lower gasoline prices should push headline inflation down faster than expected. GDP revisions and recent developments also suggest more room for growth without inflation. The Bank holds at 1.75% while retaining its view that rates will eventually need to rise. For households, that conditional outlook is different from a fixed timetable: compare renewal options without assuming either imminent hikes or guaranteed cuts.
What this means for a mortgage
The overnight target influences short-term borrowing costs, including lender prime rates. Variable mortgages and home-equity lines of credit are more directly exposed to prime-rate changes. Fixed mortgage offers also depend on bond yields, funding costs, the term and lender competition; they can move even when the Bank holds.
The Bank’s weekly lender series around this announcement provides the following posted reference rates. These are typical posted rates at six major chartered banks, not discounted offers or an assurance of the rate a borrower can obtain. They should not be read as proof that a lender has already passed through today’s decision.
| Posted reference | Rate |
|---|---|
| Prime | 3.95% |
| One-year conventional mortgage | 3.64% |
| Three-year conventional mortgage | 4.29% |
| Five-year conventional mortgage | 5.34% |
Payment illustration: a $300,000 mortgage amortized over 25 years at the 5.34% posted five-year rate is approximately $1,803 per month for principal and interest, using Canadian semi-annual compounding. This is an illustration, not a lender quote. Taxes, insurance, utilities, closing costs and qualification requirements are separate.
Put the announcement into a Greater Sudbury plan
Buying or renewing
Ask for written figures using your balance, down payment and amortization. Compare payment mechanics, prepayment options, penalties and the cash left after closing. A variable mortgage with fixed payments may change how much principal you repay instead of changing the payment immediately; the contract determines the result.
Preparing to sell
Financing affects what buyers can carry, but it does not set one price for every home. Compare recent sales and active alternatives in the same neighbourhood and price range. Condition, carrying costs, presentation and offer terms remain central to the decision.
Official announcement: Bank of Canada, December 5, 2018. The national policy decision does not, by itself, establish a change in Greater Sudbury property values.
For a local plan, explore the Buyer Experience or Seller Experience. You can also browse the Bank of Canada Decisions & Mortgage Rate Context Archive.
Expect Moore for Your Real Estate.
— Chad Moore, REALTOR®
— Lake City Realty Ltd., Brokerage








