When I look back at the Bank of Canada’s decisions, the overnight target moves from 1.00% at the start of 2015 to 2.25% at the September 2, 2026 decision. But the path matters more than those endpoints: oil-shock cuts, emergency pandemic support, rapid inflation-fighting increases and a later easing cycle. I would not use one rate number on its own to explain a mortgage choice or a move.
The major turning points
- 2015: two quarter-point cuts bring the target to 0.50% as falling oil prices weaken Canadian income and investment.
- 2017–2018: five increases lift the target to 1.75% as the economy strengthens.
- 2020: three March cuts reduce the target to 0.25% as COVID-19 disrupts activity and financial markets.
- 2022–2023: the Bank raises rates rapidly to address broad inflation, reaching 5.00% in July 2023.
- 2024–2025: nine cuts across the two years reduce the target to 2.25%.
- 2026 through September 2: six holds keep the target at 2.25% while the Bank weighs growth and inflation risks.
Annual policy-rate summary
| Year | Opening target | Closing target | Increases | Cuts | Holds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 1.00% | 0.50% | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 2016 | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| 2017 | 0.50% | 1.00% | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 2018 | 1.00% | 1.75% | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| 2019 | 1.75% | 1.75% | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| 2020 | 1.75% | 0.25% | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 2021 | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| 2022 | 0.25% | 4.25% | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| 2023 | 4.25% | 5.00% | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| 2024 | 5.00% | 3.25% | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 2025 | 3.25% | 2.25% | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 2026 to Sept. 2 | 2.25% | 2.25% | 0 | 0 | 6 |
The 2026 row covers only announcements through September 2. Opening and closing rates show the policy target at the boundaries of each period; the decision counts include holds as well as changes. The 2020 row counts the Bank’s two unscheduled March decisions as well as its eight fixed announcement dates.
What the history means for a mortgage borrower
The policy rate is not your mortgage rate. It influences short-term funding and lender prime rates, making it especially relevant to variable mortgages and home-equity lines of credit. Fixed mortgage offers also reflect bond yields, lender funding, competition and product terms.
A policy cut does not guarantee an equal reduction in your payment. A hold does not freeze fixed-rate offers. The effect depends on the contract, how the lender responds and whether you are taking a new mortgage, renewing or continuing an existing term.
If you are comparing mortgage offers, I would start with the same balance, amortization and term, then look at penalties, prepayment flexibility and switching costs. Test the full housing budget too, including taxes, insurance, utilities and maintenance. A historical policy rate cannot tell you which offer is best for your contract or cash flow.
Read each announcement in its own context
The decision archive links to the individual analyses. The announcement date and the date a new target takes effect can differ. Some posts are published after the announcement and explain that timing in the opening paragraphs.
Read the inflation and growth reasoning alongside the rate. The same nominal target can reflect very different economic conditions. A national decision is not proof that Greater Sudbury home prices move by a particular amount.
Bring the history back to your move
I use rate history to test assumptions, not to claim there is a guaranteed best time to buy or sell. If you are renewing, consider whether the household budget can manage more than one plausible rate. If you are selling, I still need current comparable sales and competing listings; if you are buying, the home needs to fit both your budget and day-to-day life.
For more detail, read how Canadian banks set mortgage rates and compare the local context in the Greater Sudbury house-market history.
Sources: the Bank of Canada’s policy-rate record and official announcements linked individually in the decision archive, including the September 2, 2026 decision. The annual counts above group decisions by announcement year, including unscheduled 2020 announcements.
For a local plan, explore the Buyer Experience or Seller Experience. You can also browse the Bank of Canada Decisions & Mortgage Rate Context Archive.
Expect Moore for Your Real Estate.
— Chad Moore, REALTOR®
— Lake City Realty Ltd., Brokerage