Sudbury is known for many things, including Science North, the Big Nickel, and the Sudbury Wolves. However, one of the city's lesser-known but equally impressive features is its vibrant culinary scene. From local gems to chain restaurants, Sudbury offers a wide range of dining options that cater to everyone's tastes. Driving through the city, every corridor is lined with restaurant after restaurant. 

As a foodie and a longtime Sudbury resident, I thought it would be helpful to share my top five favourite local eateries. These are the places that I frequent the most, and have grown to love over the years. Additionally, they are all locally owned and operated, making them a great way to support the community while enjoying some delicious food made with fresh ingredients.

Without further ado, here are my top 5 favourite local restaurants, with a menu recommendation for each!

5 - The Kouzzina (or for you locals P&Ms!)

I can’t say enough about this place! Junior and Leslie have created a warm and inviting atmosphere. The menu is part-greek, part-italian, but completely delicious - all without breaking the bank! And their patio is probably my favourite in the city! This is often a go to restaurant for me when I am looking for  place to eat on a weeknight because I worked late and don’t feel like cooking.

Menu Recommendation - Try the veal chop. It’s not something you will see on a lot of menus, and worth the price. Pair it with a glass of Pinot Noir.

4 - The DogHouse (or as the locals call it, the Dog!)

I was no stranger to the Doghouse, having been to the downtown location many times for a pregame pint or two! Having lived in Azilda, I became a regular at that establishment. What most people who have been will agree on, is that they probably have the best wings in town! I know, that is always a question that is open for debate, with everyone having their favourite wing place. But for me, this is the place. And the regulars will tell you, the secret flavour menu is something you will have to learn from trial and error even thought he staff may let you in on the secret a bit… And don’t be surprised if you show up for Sunday brunch and can’t get a table right away!

Menu Recommendation - Try the Franks Butter Hot flavour on your wings, which should pair well with your favourite brew.

3 - The Apollo 

This for many years was a restaurant I overlooked, until a friend brought me there and started a decade-long love affair! Don’t come here expecting fine dining, but that doesn’t mean the quality is not there! This is homestyle greek cuisine, the way mom made it! Except your hostess/mother is owner Toula, who’s warmth and hospitality are unparalleled! With a variety of pastas, meats and things from the sea, you’re sure to find something to love on this menu!

Menu Recommendation - Without question, the rack of lamb, which is what I eat 2/3 of the time I come here. Pair it with a glass of Chianti.

2 - Respect is Burning

Sorry Mark, but if you’re reading this I only had room for 1 brother on my list, and I had to flip a coin to choose… Owner/Operator Rob Gregorini, from the culinary family that has brought you some of Sudbury’s favourite eateries bring you this casual dining hotspot. The menu is rustic in nature, with a strong emphasis on flavour. With a variety of shareable plates, to pastas, pizzas and meat entrees, I have yet to order something and have it be a miss… And considering I have eaten here 200 times if I’ve eaten here once… And I loved the take-out menu they introduced during the pandemic - something I took advantage of a time or two! This is a great date-night spot before going to a show at the theatre or arena.

Menu Recommendation - Split a pasta as an appetizer, before moving on to an entree. I’d offer a wine pairing, but that will depend on the combination chosen… If unsure, any of the Valpolicellas on the menu should pair well with most anything on the menu.

1- Mr Prime Rib

I am often asked what my favourite restaurant in town is. People who know me know that I am passionate about food and culinary experiences. And although several restaurant count themselves among my favourites, and having my favourites based on cuisine… This one really is the top for me!

The menu is classic steakhouse, with a greek twist… And they must be doing something right, having just celebrated their 56th anniversary! The Roumanes family has created a relaxed atmosphere, and son Sam ensures exceptional service that keeps generations of customers coming back. In his own words “It’s not modern inside, but we care and we are here everyday. We don’t lead by arm’s length. Some would say our interior is outdated, but we feel it is a classic beef house experience. And our customers have been the air beneath our feet.” I couldn’t agree more!

All that being said, I absolute LOVE the recent rebranding they have done, and the new signage and menus that have come with it! If you haven’t been, this is one you need to visit!

Menu Recommendation - Start with the Octopus (in my opinion, it’s the best in town, a fact that Sam is very proud of, and an opinion he’ll happily share), before moving on to your favourite cut of beef. Pair with a glass of Chianti.

A couple restaurants that didn’t make my list, but I feel deserve an honourable mention are Tommy’s Not Here & Verdicchio’s. Both are excellent if you are looking for a little more of a fine dining experience.

Do you have a favourite restaurant that didn’t make my list? Drop a comment below, and let everyone know where and why!

Hey everybody! With 2022 in the books, we took some time to review last year, and how we fared in the Greater Sudbury Real Estate Market. If you haven’t read that blog post, I recommend giving a quick read!

Looking ahead to 2023, it’s time for me to make some predictions! Now, nobody has a crystal ball, and me least of all… What I am relying on here is my decade-plus of working in the Sudbury Real Estate Market, and my analysis of the market statistics of the recent past, to make educated guesses of what I think the future will hold! Some of these are fairly obvious, while other may be a little bolder!

As I want to get into enough detail with each of them, I have decided to break it down into a 4 part series. This will allow me to go into detail with my reasoning behind each prediction, and engage in discussion about them.

Only time will tell if I am right on any of them!

At the time of writing at the end of January, the BoC rate finds itself at 4.25%, which is where we ended 2022. It is anticipated that the Bank of Canada will raise rates by another 0.25% before the end of January, bringing the overnight rate to 4.5%.

Now, there are a lot of factors that come in to play here. What does the US Federal Reserve do with their benchmark rate? Has the US sorted out the debt ceiling issue? What kind of chaos does this situation cause with regard to financial markets and the world economy as a whole? Are we in recession? Where is inflation at?

There are so many variables at play! It can be difficult even for someone in the financial industry to predict what interest rates are going to do, let alone a humble realtor… I am lucky that I have many friends and colleagues around me that work with or closely to the financial services sector, so I get to pick their brains a little… And interest rates have been a regular topic of discussion for us (so much so, that our wives/girlfriends often have to tell us enough shop talk!). 

The reality however is that this is something on our minds, as it will have a drastic impact on our businesses moving forward. The BoC rate affects everything from mortgages, credit facilities (credit cards, LOC, etc…), bond markets… Everything in finance is somehow ties to the benchmark rate.

The BoC has been using interest rates to get inflation under control. Some say it’s been excessive, but all agree that something had to be done. While the rate drops were necessary during the pandemic to keep the economy afloat, rate hikes were certain to follow. 

Newton’s Third Law says (more or less) that any action will have an equal and opposite reaction. Although being a law of physics, I have often found that this principe can be applied to financial markets. Low rates can lead to higher inflation as they can spur demand. So, from that perspective, inflationary pressures were predicted. Conversely, rates were going to have to go up to rein in inflation. I just don’t think many people saw the steep increases that we saw, and as quickly as we saw them.

For rate increases to have an effect, it takes time. The markets need to adapt, and market fluctuations need to sort themselves out. Think of it like the wake of a boat travelling on a lake. The waves are largest right as the boat cuts through the water, and get softer and smaller as they travel outward. Apply that concept to interest rates.

My thoughts are that we will see another increase (or at time of publishing have seen!) of 0.25%, bringing the BoC rate to 4.5%. Then, we will see that number hold for 2 quarters while the ripples in the economy sort themselves out. That means these rates will hold through Q1 and Q2, or through the spring real estate market. We will not likely see an easing of interest rates before Q3 at the earliest, unless something dramatic happens in the economy.

We will head in to a recession, if we aren’t there already. As Q3 winds down, and we head into Q4, my feeling is we will see a reduction in interest rates before the end of the year. This will be done in hopes of stimulating the economy, and stave off the effects of a recession. How many, and how much are the questions we are posing here. I anticipate as much as 0.5% reduction by years end, bringing the rate down to my predicted 4% to finish the year. I would consider my prediction to be successful if we end the year anywhere in the 3.75% to 4.25% range, both of which are entirely possible before the end of the year.

Hey everybody! With 2022 in the books, we took some time to review last year, and how we fared in the Greater Sudbury Real Estate Market. If you haven’t read that blog post, I recommend giving a quick read!

Looking ahead to 2023, it’s time for me to make some predictions! Now, nobody has a crystal ball, and me least of all… What I am relying on here is my decade-plus of working in the Sudbury Real Estate Market, and my analysis of the market statistics of the recent past, to make educated guesses of what I think the future will hold! Some of these are fairly obvious, while other may be a little bolder!

As I want to get into enough detail with each of them, I have decided to break it down into a 4 part series. This will allow me to go into detail with my reasoning behind each prediction, and engage in discussion about them.

Only time will tell if I am right on any of them!

Well I hate to be the bearer of bad news, and this is only bad news depending which side of the transaction you are on, but… The worst is in fact behind us! We have seen the bulk of the drop in prices that we are going to see. Prices receded 15% from the peak in Q2 of 2022, from a high of around 500k, to about 430k to finish the year in Q4.

In 2023, we will continue to see downwards forces on prices, but only slightly. Interest rates have more or less peaked. We may see another small increase in the overnight rate this year, before seeing rates ease as we end the year. Overall, the change in rates is going to be negligible, and at best I think we will see the overnight rate 0.5% lower than where they were at the end of 2022.

Although we will see some months below 400k average price, I fell we will see some above that as well. At the end of the year, I feel like this will work out in the wash, and we will see an average price very close to $400,000, either just below or just above. Pressed for a number, I am going to guess $396,500. That would represent a further drop of a little less than 10%. And this could be bad news for both sides, as sellers will have to endure a further drop in the values of their homes, while buyers will see that the market is in fact not crashing as they hoped it would.

This news may be particularly unwelcome to many first-time home buyers out there, many of whom were priced out of the market due to the unprecedented increase in property values through the pandemic. I know many are holding out hope for prices to drop to levels where the affordability of a home returns to them. Many are hoping of a “crash”, and thinking prices will drop another 100k. I simply don’t see this being the case, nor do I know of anybody in the industry that feels this will be the case. 

However, after reviewing the data, and discussing with some colleagues, it is my belief that will will see most of the gains of the last half of 2021 and first half of 2022 continue to evaporate, leaving us roughly with number in line with the average of Q1 and Q2 of 2021. The average price of a home sold in 2021 was $403,597, and I think we will end just below that number.

All that being said, after a discussion with my Broker of Record, I am gong to begin paying more close attention to the Median Price, as this differs significantly from Average Price. Average Price includes all homes sold, no exceptions. Median Price excludes some “Outlier” properties which can skew the data a bit.

Outlier properties are properties that are so far outside the norm, they sell for significantly less or significantly more that other properties on the market. What we mean by this, is maybe you have an absolute tear down of a property that sells for under 150k, when typical homes in the area sell for above 350k. On the other side, we are talking about luxury waterfront properties. In December for example, we had a single sale of $1.6 million. If we looked at the average sale price for the week, and excluded that 1 sale, it was enough to affect average price by 100k that week.

By doing this, I believe it will be able to give us all a better picture of what price a typical home is selling for by giving more weight to “typical homes” and excluding certain luxury and waterfront properties that are so far removed from the definition of a typical home that they really don’t have any bearing on the overall health of the real estate market. This whole topic will be covered in a future blog post, and I will let you be the judge of my reasoning here.

Hey everybody! With 2022 in the books, we took some time to review last year, and how we fared in the Greater Sudbury Real Estate Market. If you haven’t read that blog post, I recommend giving a quick read!

Looking ahead to 2023, it’s time for me to make some predictions! Now, nobody has a crystal ball, and me least of all… What I am relying on here is my decade-plus of working in the Sudbury Real Estate Market, and my analysis of the market statistics of the recent past, to make educated guesses of what I think the future will hold! Some of these are fairly obvious, while other may be a little bolder!

As I want to get into enough detail with each of them, I have decided to break it down into a 4 part series. This will allow me to go into detail with my reasoning behind each prediction, and engage in discussion about them.

Only time will tell if I am right on any of them!

Ok… So I am being a little conservative here… I am 100% certain we will be at 300 active listings to end the year. I originally wanted to predict 350+ active listings, and I still think that could happen… But, I want my predictions to come true, and decided to be a little conservative here.

We noticed the number of active listings climb throughout 2022. Although the number of active listings has been slowly dropping since peaking most recently in 2014, the pandemic saw that drop accelerate to unprecedented lows. With downward pressures on demand, largely caused by high interest rates, and the other prediction of sales numbers dropping, we will see listings increase over time.

The X factor here that could cause this prediction to not come to fruition is the motivations of Sellers in 2023, and their willingness to adapt to market realities. I have seen many times sellers resistant to reducing their price, and the amount they would be willing to accept to sell their house. It can be a tough pill for many to swallow after witnessing the flurry of activity of recent years, and the prices their neighbours have been getting for their homes. Many may forego selling altogether, waiting for better market conditions.

How many sellers will let go in order to pursue their future plans, and capitalize on this downturn in the market for themselves. How many sellers will have to sell as their mortgage are due to reset? How many got in over their heads while rates were low, buying things on variable rate loans and lines of credit, and now their best option is to tap into the equity in their home and downsize to pay off debt? These are all the various questions I am hearing and reading from colleagues and through analysis from other industry experts.

While supply and demand will continue to dictate much of what will transpire in the real estate market, it’s fairly easy to predict the number of listings will continue to climb. The hard part is predicting by just how much… This could be mitigated by sellers adjusting their expectations, and coming to reality a bit as it relates to the value of their home. If enough sellers do, then we could see sales numbers higher than anticipated, and the increase in the number of listing be slower than anticipated.

Now, I have seen some analysis that indicates the number of active listing climb to 500 by year end, but I think that is a little too lofty of a number to be realistically attainable. I am sure we will see 500 active listings at some point in 2023, at the peak of spring market inventory levels. That number will come down though as things slow heading in to Q3/Q4, and we finish around 350 active listings. By the end of 2024, I wholeheartedly believe we will see active inventory consistently above 500 active listings, with spring market peaks around the mid-600s to 700.

I believe the days of 800-1100 listings on the market, based on market cycles, are now behind us. Where we used to see the boom/bust cycle run in roughly 7 year cycles, I see that time frame shortening to 5 years now. I also see the new norm of a balanced market here is when listings are in the 600-800 active listing range. I feel like this is sustainable, and will keep prices climbing over time, but at a healthy pace.

My advice to sellers - The worst thing you can do is try to time the market. I have seen far too many sellers say “I’m going to wait for the market to turn”, only to realize that it is taking longer than they expected, and they end up selling for less 12 to 18 months later. Be honest about what your goals are, come up with a (realistic) plan, and hire an experienced agent to guide you through on how to get it done.

Hey everybody! With 2022 in the books, we took some time to review last year, and how we fared in the Greater Sudbury Real Estate Market. If you haven’t read that blog post, i recommend giving a quick read!

Looking ahead to 2023, it’s time for me to make some predictions! Now, nobody has a crystal ball, and me least of all… What I am relying on here is my decade-plus of working in the Sudbury Real Estate Market, and my analysis of the market statistics of the recent past, to make educated guesses of what I think the future will hold! Some of these are fairly obvious, while other may be a little bolder!

As I want to get into enough detail with each of them, I have decided to break it down into a 4 part series. This will allow me to go into detail with my reasoning behind each prediction, and engage in discussion about them.

Only time will tell if I am right on any of them!

Although the drop in number of sales is not-so-bold of a prediction… The severity of the drop may be significant. With interest rates remaining high through 2023, a downward pressure will be put on demand, resulting in less homes being sold in 2023.

Interest rates are at the highest I have seen in my career (I was fully licensed in 2010, so in my 13th year now), high inflation cutting into people’s budgets, and simply less money for people to spend on housing. If we throw the cost of rent for anyone who will be a first-time buyer, less and less is being saved. Household debt is increasing for many families, and that cottage property or that step-up home may be a few years out still for many.

I have heard colleagues throw around a 30% drop in number of sales, but I think this is a little pessimistic. That would see sales drop to about 1,350 in 2023. Although most of the necessary forces are there, I don’t think the drop will be as dramatic as that, and I anticipate the drop to be in the range of between 15% and 20%. That would mean the number of residential sales in 2023 will be between 1,600 and 1,750 residential homes. This would be a just below the normal range of what we have experienced over the last decade.

If pressed for a number, I am going to say we will see a number closer to 1,650. My confidence increases the more we approach the lower end of the range I have predicted. That being said, I know from my own buyers than many are motivated to enter the real estate market this year, despite interest rates. They want to get into the market before prices start increasing again, which they will undoubtedly in time. 

Another buyer I am encountering a fair bit is the soon-to-be-retired buyer. They are looking to downsize, but not necessarily downgrade. Some may be willing to buy a fixer-upper, but one that offers the space and features they would want. They will take the next couple of years renovating it, in order to turn it into what they want. Others are looking to upgrade to the water before prices get too far out of hand, and their retirement dream totally out of reach.

If enough of these buyers come out of the woodwork, then we could see the final number closer to the higher end of my prediction. Where the former may be a little less choosy about the home they end up buying, the latter will be very picky and will not settle. There will be some of both, but how many will end up affecting which end of the predicted range we end up in.

A number of other factors will have an impact as well. Supply will be going up, so it will be interesting to see how many sellers are willing to be negotiable, and how much. Will buyers throw caution to the wind despite interest rates, and enter the market at any cost with the solace of knowing that interest rates will eventually go down? And what do interest rates end up doing? What effect will the debt ceiling showdown in the US have on an already fragile economy heading to recession? What will the US Federal Reserve do? The BoC will surely have to follow…

There are so many influences, that the future is cloudy for sure! If even half of these take a turn for the worse, sales will drop to the low end of my predicted range. If all go bad, then it’s possible that my colleagues are correct in their predictions of 30%, and sales of 1,350 is optimistic…

My advice to Buyers - Now is your opportunity! Sellers who are motivated to sell will have to concedes. Despite high interest rates, you may be able to buy at a discount, and go the route of a variable rate mortgage. It will mean some small sacrifices today, but you can always lock-in your rate once rates eventually go down. But, as always, speak to your mortgage professional first, and make sure this is the right way to go, and in-line with your medium-to-long-term goals.

Hello again everybody! I hope everyone had a great Christmas, and that 2023 will be good to you! With 2022 now in the books, I delved deep into the market stats from the last year in order to make some predictions which I will be publishing on Wednesday.

But before we can look forward, we of course need to understand what happened… Last year started off looking great! Prices were continuing to climb, and the market wasn’t yet showing signs of slowing, at least to the untrained eye… As a reminder, I only look at the statistics of the City of Greater Sudbury, and not the Sudbury Real Estate Board’s territory as a whole, which includes Espanola/Manitoulin, east and west on Highway 17, and south on Highway 69 until we meet the jurisdictions of the RE boards of our neighbouring cities.

The truth of the matter was the signs were there for a market correction. I had been saying around the office that I felt 2023 was going to see a small shift in the market, similar to the one we saw in 2013. I had predicted we could see that shift as early as Q1, but that by Q3 we would be well on our way. I had said to colleagues that I felt we would see the beginnings of it in Q1 or Q2, but that we would go through another spring market before the full effect would be known. The uptick in activity typically experienced during the spring market would mute the effects somewhat…

At that time, 2 colleagues in my office (Broker of Record & another veteran agent) wholeheartedly disagreed, and thought I was crazy to think that, and a little too pessimistic about the market… Well, it turns out that I actually wasn’t pessimistic enough!

With the benefit of hindsight, we can see that the peak of the market actually happened right at the beginning of Q1. Some may disagree, as average price on a monthly basis stayed relatively high through Q1 & Q2, but price is what we call a lagging indicator of market conditions. What that means, is it can take several months for market conditions to sort themselves out, and for behaviours to shift enough to have an affect on prices.

In order to appreciate what was happening, we simply have to look at 2 metrics/stats in particular. The first is the increase in Active Listings, meaning the listings that have not sold and are carried over from one month to the other. We saw this number hit a low of 73 in December of 2021, and steadily grow by a factor of 3 by the time we made it to June! That is a pace of roughly double what we had seen in 2021.

The second metric/stat would be the differential between how many New Listings hit the market, and the Number of Sales in a given month. Where we spent a good part of 2021 with sales numbers exceeding the number of new listings, 2022 saw that number steadily climb through the first 2 quarters, reaching a peak of 125 more new listings than we saw sales in June.

Now, I am sure you are all tired of hearing me say it, but the single biggest influence to price in the real estate market is supply and demand. As inflation got out of control, and interest rates began to rise, demand started to wane. And if supply is climbing, while demand is dropping, the effect on prices is going to be a downward trend.

After finishing 2021 strong, with an average price for a home sold toward the end of 2021 in and around the mid-to-high 400s, we started off 2022 with average prices right at the 500k mark through the first 2 quarters of the year. But remember, price is a lagging indicator… Come Q3, we saw average price drop below 450k, and save for a slight uptick in September, average price never exceeded 450k in any month…

Although the average price of a home sold in Greater Sudbury during 2022 was $473,874, we finished the year with the price of the average home being closer to 430k. While that is an increase from the average price of 2021, simple arithmetic tells us that is a 15% drop in average price from the peak.

Now that we know what happened, and why… What does that mean moving forward?

Stay tuned for my next blog post on Wednesday where I will have my predictions for 2023!

Happy New Year!

Link for 1:30-2:30: 

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Link for 2:30-3:30:

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I hope you all have enjoyed your summer! I for one have! I did get quite a bit of work done over the summer, but I did make sure to take time for myself, and my kids. But, as September rolls on, and we get back on routine, it is worth taking a look at how the market fared over the summer months…

Many of you may remember I made some predictions heading into Q3, which you can view here. But how did I do… Well, the results are in!

1 - New Listings will total less than 400 in July & August 

Ya… I missed this one… And by quite a bit… The total new listings for July and August were 512 (267+245). I was off by about 20%… This was a little shocking to me, but it shouldn’t have been. We saw numbers more in line with what we say during the early days of a spring market, in March & April. The drop did however follow the historical trend, of new listings dropping between 20% & 30% from May and June. I think this had a lot to do with people trying to get out in front of the transitioning market, and sell properties they wanted to offload before a more significant drop in values. In hindsight, I should not have been so pessimistic about this number… I should not have gotten this wrong, as if I had calculated base on the % drop in new listings, I would have been pretty bang on…

2 - Number of Sales will be strong(er) as compared to New Listings

I nailed this one! Although sales dropped in each of the months, with 215 sales in July and 186 in August (as compared to 258 & 234 in May and June respectively), the differential between New Listings and Sales narrowed considerably! June saw 133 more new listings than sales, where that number dropped to 52 in July & 59 in August. Sales numbers were in fact strong as compared to new listings.

I had said this summer was an opportunity for buyers to negotiate a little on price, with average prices going down and interest rates going up. It’s my feeling that many people did in fact take advantage… I know some of my clients did…

3 - Average Price $ will go Down compared to Q1 & Q2

In all fairness, this was the easiest prediction to make… Average Price always goes down in the summer months. This is largely driven by buyer behaviours, and the demographics at play. Many (if not most!) of the buyers in the upper price points simply are not putting their houses on the market in the summer months, nor are they shopping for a new home. They are out enjoying the summer with their families. If they are in the market, it is usually for a secondary property like a cottage or recreational property. The summer market is driven much more by first-time and step-up buyers, and therefore we see more activity in the lower price points of our market.

Average price for July was $442,584, whereas August was $440,408. I had predicted within a reasonable margin of 450k, which was already a significant drop from the roughly 500k average price we had seen for the first half of 2022. I predict this will go up slightly in September and October.

So… I went 2 for 3! Not bad, but should have been 3 for 3… Hindsight being what it is, I should have known the new listing numbers would have been stronger than I predicted…

What are we going to see to finish off Q3?

We are going to see things level off in the autumn months, and then drop as we head into the winter months. Easy enough to predict, as that is the trend pretty much every year… We are going to see average price in September come in higher than July/August, but only slightly… I think we will see an average price in September a little more in line with what the average price for 2022 will end up being, which is between 260k and 275k. If pressed for a specific answer,.. I will say average price for September is going to be right around 265k, but could come in a tad higher or lower. 

Buyers will continue to drive the market. Overall, my feeling is the typical house is down about 10%/12% from the peak of Q1. I have also found that in a lot of cases, seller expectations have come down a little, and that we are able to put deals together that are fair to both buyer and seller. I have actually been able to use the state of the market to put some excellent deals together for buyers at significantly lower prices than what was being asked (65k under in one case!). So, from that perspective, don’t be afraid to put out an offer on a house you like, even if you don’t like the listing price. You may just surprise yourself and buy a house!

What’s on tap for September? Lake City Realty will be hosting a Client Appreciation event! Join us Sunday September 18th at the Jungle Gym in the South End from 130PM to 330PM. To ensure an opportunity for everyone to enjoy, we are asking to register for one of the 1-hour blocks. There is no cost whatsoever, and snack will be provided, so please register and come and join us!

Link for 1:30-2:30: 

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Link for 2:30-3:30:

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And don’t forget about the Great Pumpkin Hunt coming in October at Kivi park! More details to come!

That’s all for now! Thanks for reading! Keep an eye out for a new blog post before the end of the month, where I will be making my Q4 predictions!

Until next time!

Hello all! I Hope everyone is enjoying their summer so far. Myself, it’s been a busy couple of weeks, having taken the first week of July off to spend with the kids. But, reality has set back in, and it’s back to work!

After getting caught up on things from a week away, it was time to look at the market stats for June, and wrap up Q2 of 2022. Once I reviewed the data, some interesting things came out of it, including some insights to dispel all the doom and gloom we are hearing in the media.

Now, a few people have commented that my stats don’t line up with what is being published by the Sudbury Real Estate Board, and then shared by many of my colleagues… It is important to note that the statistics I am using are from reports I have pulled, and are limited to the City of Greater Sudbury proper. The SREB stats are for the entire real estate board, and included many outlying area of CGS, including Manitoulin Island and Espanola, as well as any property in Ontario that was listed by a member of the SREB through our MLS system. As I am only concerned with what is happening in Greater Sudbury, I am only looking at the date set from CGS.

Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way…

June, much like the previous 5 months of 2022 saw the market continue to transition. New listings continued to be higher than active inventory levels, with the former hitting a high for the year of 356 new listings for the month of June, whereas we finished the month with 302 active listing on our MLS system. Number of sales actually dipped a little, dropping to 234 for June, or a reduction of 24 from May’s high of 258. Average price also dipped a little to $489,322, but still in line with the monthly numbers we have seen so far in 2022.

What is surprising about where we have ended up at the end of Q2, is that active inventory levels have more than doubled from where they were at when Q1 ended! At the end of March, we were sitting at 135 active listings. With the number at the end of June being 302, that’s an increase of 124%!!! 

Now, a lot of what we are hearing in the media is about a slowdown in the market, and prices dropping. You may have heard many of your friends sharing the idea of a market crash, and significant decrease in prices. Although we have seen the value of homes dip a little, it is mostly anecdotal, and not supported by the numbers… In fact, the average price for June 2022 was a little more than 70k higher than the average price from June 2021, which was $417,292. So, even if there is the appearance of prices dropping, average price continues to be higher in 2022 than anything we have seen before. 

So I ask - Are the fears of price drop based on fact, or is it all driven by hype?

My feeling is it’s mostly hype. Houses continue to sell in a down market, just not at the pace we have been used to the last 30 months or so. Although interest rates are affecting buyer attitudes, and certainly causing some people to reevaluate their plans, the biggest factor causing this feeling of a slowdown is the increase in inventory! Yes, number of sales is down, but that drop is in most cases marginal when comparing to the same month in 2021. Although statistically relevant, it is far from statistically significant…

I do believe there is a disconnect between the data and what we are seeing in the market. Until the data can show what is actually happening, I’m going to reserve judgement on the state of the market. For now, I believe it’s simply an increase in demand, coupled with the hype surrounding the interest rates that are driving buyer decisions at the moment. And we know that it is buyers that drive the market…

Advice for buyers

In this type of market, it’s important to weigh your decisions against what your short, medium and long term goals are! If your plan is to only live in Sudbury for the next 2 or 3 years, then buying a home may not be the right choice. With the uncertainty of how things are going to unfold in the short term, maybe renting is the safer option. That being said, if your plan is to live in the home for years to come, the fear of an overpayment today should prices drop slightly should be moot. Any overpayment today will be eclipsed by the gains of tomorrow. Markets are cyclical, and property values only go up overtime. 

As a buyer with long term goals, I’d be more concerned about whether or not the house suits my need, and that I can afford it, than getting wrapped up in getting a good deal. Keep your eyes on the prize, and what the ultimate goal is - buying a home, and getting into the market to build up that equity over the long term. The worst thing you can do as a buyer is try to time the market. As things slow, this is an opportunity to view more listings, and to act more deliberately in purchasing a home, as opposed to acting on emotion and having to jump on any house that suits your need before it’s gone!

Advice for sellers

Are you selling or trying? Right now, most sellers are acting like they are trying, and very few are actually selling. Sellers are realistic with the state of the market, and the effect that has had on prices. Triers are testing the market, looking for a sucker to pay their inflated price. Unfortunately for them, the agents who do the vast majority of the business in Greater Sudbury are very savvy, and are advising their clients on a bad buy or an overpay. We are steering our clients towards the better buys, and the better deals. 

It’s time for these sellers to come back down to reality, and make a decision on whether or not they want to sell. If you are serious about selling, look at where you fit in with the active inventory in your neighbourhood. Far too often sellers get wrapped up in the past sales, and fail to look at their competition. How your house stacks up to the completion, and how you are priced by comparison will greatly affect the traffic through the door, and ultimately the price you’re going to sell for. 

Don’t panic if you house is sitting after a few weeks. Days on market is going to continue to climb as inventory levels continue to go up. If priced correctly, your house will sell, it just may take a little more time than you were hoping. Ensure proper pricing, and proper placement in the marketplace. 

This is where a top agent with a comprehensive marketing plan can make a difference, so do your due diligence, and don’t necessarily go with your friend's agent who did well during 2020 and 2021. Anyone with a sign and an internet connection could sell a house in those days! Things are going to be a little more difficult selling for the foreseeable future, and it’s important to have someone with an actual plan to sell, and not just an empty shirt.

That’s all for now! Thanks for reading! Keep an eye out for my next blog post, where I will delve into July’s numbers, and provide an update on my Q3 predictions! Teaser - they appear to be coming true!

Until next time!

Q3 Predictions - Where I Think We Are Heading 

If you’ve read my previous blog post, you now have an understanding, albeit a basic one, of what the landscape of the real estate market was coming into the pandemic, and how that catalytic event accelerated a trend that had been slowly evolving over the last decade. If you haven’t, I recommend taking a couple of minutes, and reading that blog post before continuing here!

Now, to recap, active inventory has been trending downwards heading into 2022, with a drop of approximately 80% in the 5 years preceding the pandemic. In Q1 & Q2, we saw new listings outpace number of sales, and by a wide enough margin that we have seen inventory levels climb steadily for the last six months, effectively doubling in that time.

This has put some pressure on those increasing prices, and cooled the market somewhat. Now, a cooling market does not mean the market is cool - just that it isn’t as hot as it was. We are still seeing premiums being paid by buyers on some properties, typically turn key homes that you just fall in love with minutes after walking through the door. Waterfront properties continue to be hot as well, as I witnessed myself in the last couple of weeks, with every waterfront property I showed having an abundance of business cards left behind by the other agents who had shown the property.

Although buyer’s attitudes are shifting in this transitional market, buyer’s are showing they are still willing to pay a premium $ for a premium product. Where we are seeing hesitancy is in those in between properties, i.e. properties that maybe need a little bit of work or updating. Buyers are noticing more inventory coming to and staying on market, and the fear of missing out on the next listing seems to be driving some of those buying decisions, in addition to that fear of the unknown as it relates to interest rates and price trends.

But what does this mean moving forward… Well, it’s prediction time!

1 - New Listings will total less than 400 in July & August

At time of writing, we are sitting at 386 new listings for June (with about 2 weeks to go in the month), and May numbers coming in at 345 new listings. These numbers are a tad higher than the last couple of years, but the numbers for March & April were a little lower. My thoughts are that some of the higher numbers can be explained by cancelled listings that were then relisted at a new price. It’s something we have been seeing on our hot sheets (what we call the daily activity bulletin showing new listings, sold, cancelled, etc…). There are also those trying to capitalize on the market before things slow down even more.

With this being the first summer since the beginning of the pandemic without any real restrictions in place, it’s my feeling that many people will be taking full advantage! Come July 1st, families will be taking trips, going camping, attending concerts and festivals, or whatever activities they have not been able to fully enjoy the last 2 summers. Talk to people in your circle, and you will find that many have plans that have been made for quite some time now. A quick check of hotel & car rental availability will show that getting a rental car, hotel room or AirBNB in July in all the major tourist markets is very difficult! I know this first hand, as I have tried to add plans to my summer, and have found it increasingly difficult to find suitable accommodations. Every campground that I have looked into is completely booked up as well.

New listings of homes over 500k have been more or less keeping up with new listings below that threshold. The ratio seems to be 3:2, with 3 homes being listed under 500k, to 2 over 500k. I see this changing, with listings over 500k dropping significantly, and that margin growing through the summer months.

2 - Number of Sales will be strong(er) as compared to New Listings

I am thinking the number of sales are going to drop, but that will have more to do with the drop in New Listings. The ratio between sales and new listings will however narrow, meaning the difference in the number of sales to new listings will be much smaller than we have seen through Q1 and Q2. This will result in a small dip in the active inventory we are carrying over, but nothing significant.

In early July and late August, we will see sales figures largely driven by properties in the lower price points, with the bulk of the sales in the higher price point occurring in late July and early August. If you have a home for sale through the summer months over 500k, be prepared for more days on market, and potentially offers a little lower than expected as demand will dip slightly as people enjoy their summer. If you’re a buyer in this price point, this could be an opportunity to negotiate a little on price for these homes.

For homes under 500k, or more in line with First-Time Home Buyer price points, I see demand continuing to be strong, as these buyers will be motivated to buy before the interest rate guarantee on their preapproval jumps. Inventory levels will drive a lot of this, but if my above prediction holds true, this space in the market may continue to be competitive throughout the summer as these buyers are motivated to make a purchase.

3 - Average Price $ will go Down compared to Q1 & Q2

We have already seen the price of certain types of homes, and certain neighbourhoods drop slightly. That being said, the average sale price of a home in Greater Sudbury has actually gone up in Q1 & Q2 as compared to 2021, from a low of 491k in January and a high of 505k in March. The rolling average so far for 2022 is pretty much right at the 500k mark. This is a marked increase from the numbers we saw in 2021, where we saw a monthly average peak in October at around 450k. The average price of a home sold in 2021 in Greater Sudbury was just a hair over 400k. All that being said, average price is a lagging indicator of market conditions, meaning it is one of the last statistics to be affected in a transitioning market.

In analyzing the sales data, it’s clear that there were many more homes over $1M sold so far in 2022 than we have seen historically, largely driven by the demand for waterfront homes. Turn-key homes, meaning homes that are updated and worry-free for a buyer for years to come, have continued to fare well, with buyers still willing to pay a premium in competition to secure their home. This has caused the average price to trend higher than it normally would.

As noted above, I see the numbers mostly affecting homes over 500k, and activity will largely be driven by homes in a little lower of a price point. For that reason, I see the average price of a home sold throughout the summer to be much closer to 450k than to 500k. And that’s where I am putting my prediction - I feel we will be within a reasonable margin of the 450k mark in July and August, and see a slight increase in average price in September.

I think we will finish the year with an average price significantly higher in 2022 than we saw in 2021, but I think that will largely be driven by a disparity we have seen recently in the number of homes sold over 500k vs those under 500k. Normally, we would see a much larger number of home in lower price points sell vs the higher, but as prices and values have increased, the new norm is that we will see the ratio of higher priced homes on the market narrow as compared to lower price points.

Caution - Don't read more into this! Average price on a month to month basis is not a good measure of overall market conditions. Prices fluctuate month to month in any given year, and are more reflective of demographics and buyer's personal habits and routines than they are of the state of the market. It's just too small of a data set to give you an accurate picture. Simply put, there are certain times of the year that certain people just aren't house shopping, in particular around peak holiday times.

Now, I may be completely wrong about all of this. Clearly, I don’t think I will be! As I have mentioned before, real estate is very much a game of hindsight, where we look back at the previous weeks and months and say “Yup, that’s what was happening”. But, with a little bit of market knowledge, and an understanding of the trends, it is possible to make some educated guesses that should hold up when all is said and done!

That’s all for now folks! Be sure to check back, where I will break down the numbers as they come in, and see if I was right! I will also start laying the ground work for my Q4 predictions, and how I see the numbers playing out for the balance of 2022!

If you have any questions, have a topic you'd like discussed in a future blog post, or need some help navigating this market, contact me to find out how we do real estate differently and I will be glad to offer any assistance I can!

Enjoy your summer!