What to Watch Before the April 29 Bank of Canada Decision
📈 The March numbers are giving us a clearer picture of how Greater Sudbury’s real estate market is shaping up in 2026.
The Sudbury Real Estate Board hasn’t fully updated its own monthly page with the March release yet, but CREA’s Q1 Sudbury data is live, which lets us reasonably infer the March sales total from the official numbers already published. Based on CREA’s first-quarter total of 367 residential sales, along with 106 sales in January and 124 in February, March appears to have come in at 137 sales.
👀 That matters because even though sales are still down from last year’s pace overall, the local market does not feel dead. Buyers are still active. What continues to hold the market back is supply. We simply are not seeing enough fresh listings come out to fully meet demand, especially in the price ranges where a lot of Sudbury buyers are shopping. That fits with January’s board data, which showed just 146 new listings, down 23.2% year over year, along with 350 active listings and 3.3 months of inventory.
If you want the lead-in to this quarter, you can also read my earlier January & February 2026 market update, which set the stage for the slower start to the year before March firmed things up a bit.
🏡 What Q1 told us about the Sudbury market
Looking at the quarter as a whole, Sudbury recorded 367 residential sales in Q1 2026, down 11.6% from Q1 2025. Detached-home sales were 317, down 4.2% year over year. At the same time, the median sale price for single-detached homes was $450,000, down 5.3% from a year ago.
On the surface, that price drop might sound like weakness. But I do not think the local story is that simple.
📉 CREA’s Sudbury price-range data shows that detached-home sales were actually up sharply in the lower price bands in Q1, rising 50.0% under $200,000, 16.1% in the $200,000 to $300,000 range, and 8.3% in the $300,000 to $400,000 range. Meanwhile, sales were down in the higher bands, including $400,000 to $500,000 and over $500,000. That suggests at least part of the softening in the quarterly median price may be a mix issue, with more entry-level homes making up a larger share of completed sales. CREA’s published Sudbury data does not directly say that is the reason, so I would frame that as my read on the numbers and what I’m seeing in the market.
💬 Homes at the more affordable end of the market are still getting attention, and when the right home hits the market, buyers show up. That is especially true in the ranges where buyers still feel they can find relative value. CREA says Sudbury’s detached market was tightest in the $400,000 to $500,000 price range, and homes in that band spent the least amount of time on market in the first quarter.
⏳ Homes are sitting longer, but the right ones are still moving
That lines up with what many of us are seeing on the ground. Yes, homes are sitting longer than they did last year. CREA reports the median days on market for sold detached homes rose to 19 days in Q1 2026 from 13 days a year earlier. But that does not mean good listings are being ignored.
In many cases, homes are sitting, then selling quickly once the price is adjusted. In other cases, buyers seem to be waiting to see whether something better comes out, and when it doesn’t, they circle back and compete for what is already available.
✨ That is why this market still offers opportunity for sellers.
If you own a home in the under-$400,000 range or the under-$500,000 range, or you have a turn-key home that shows well and is priced properly, this is still a market where you can absolutely attract strong attention.
🔑 The lesson from Q1 is not that sellers have lost leverage. It is that buyers are more selective, more price-sensitive, and a little less impulsive than they were a year ago. But when a listing is positioned properly, the demand is still there. The ongoing shortage of new listings continues to work in favour of sellers who bring the right product to market.
That is also why pricing, presentation, and launch strategy matter so much right now. I’ve written before about the 3 Ps of selling a home — pricing, positioning, and promotion — and this market is reinforcing that point again. Homes that are priced right, presented well, and brought to market properly are still the ones creating the best opportunities. That same thinking runs through The Seller Experience, especially the Hitting the Market stage, where timing, exposure, and presentation all come together.
🏆 And if you want proof that strategy still matters in this market, my Seller Success Stories page is full of real local examples where strong preparation and smart positioning helped create the right result.
🧭 Why this still does not feel like a true buyer’s market
Sudbury’s detached inventory sat at 2.4 months at the end of Q1, which is still fairly tight by local standards. In plain English, buyers may have a bit more breathing room than they did during more frantic stretches, but they still do not have an endless number of good homes to choose from.
It is one more reminder that Greater Sudbury is not just following the same script as the national headlines. I touched on that in Why Greater Sudbury Isn’t Following the National Real Estate Narrative, and I think this quarter’s numbers support that argument again. Our market is still being shaped more by local affordability, practical buyer behaviour, and limited listing supply than by the broad-brush story you hear in larger centres.
🏦 What to watch before the April 29 Bank of Canada decision
So where does all of this leave us heading into the next Bank of Canada announcement on April 29?
📌 My expectation is that the Bank of Canada will hold its policy rate at 2.25%. The Bank already held at that level on March 18, and the tone of its recent communication has been cautious: softer economic growth on one hand, inflation risks tied to energy prices on the other.
For a fuller breakdown of the last decision, you can read my earlier post on the March 18 Bank of Canada rate hold. And for buyers or sellers trying to understand why mortgage costs do not always move in lockstep with the Bank of Canada, my post on how banks actually set mortgage rates is a helpful companion read.
For local buyers and sellers, another hold would likely mean more of the same in the short term. Mortgage conditions would remain fairly stable. Buyers would still be cautious. Sellers would still benefit from limited competition in the right segments. And the Sudbury market would probably continue to reward homes that are priced properly, marketed well, and move-in ready.
✅ The big takeaway
That is the big takeaway from March and the first quarter: sales are down year over year, but buyers are still active. The bigger issue is still supply. We are not seeing enough quality listings hit the market, and that is keeping pressure on the homes that are well-positioned — especially in the more affordable and turn-key categories.
In other words, Sudbury’s market has become more measured, but not weak.
📣 If you’re thinking about selling and want a clearer read on where your home fits in today’s market, start with a professional home valuation or explore The Seller Experience to see how the process is built from planning to launch to negotiation.
Expect Moore for Your Real Estate.
— Chad Moore, REALTOR® | Lake City Realty
