By Chad Moore | October 28, 2026
For several weeks, I've been saying that I expected the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates at this meeting, or certainly by the next. Today, the Bank increased its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 2.50% and left the door open to further increases. That decision fits the direction I felt things were heading. Now we need to look at what it means for people buying, selling or carrying a mortgage in Greater Sudbury, especially with another announcement coming on December 9. Bank of Canada announcement
The Bank's explanation matters. Higher energy costs are lasting longer, and it is concerned those costs will spread through the prices businesses charge. At the same time, the economy has performed somewhat better than expected. There were reasons to hold: core inflation remains close to 2%, there is still slack in the economy, and American tariffs continue to weigh on activity. Governor Tiff Macklem acknowledged those arguments, but the Bank ultimately judged that the risk of more persistent inflation justified an increase. For housing, that creates an uncomfortable combination. Affordability is already difficult, and borrowing costs can rise even while the real estate market is relatively soft. Governor's opening statement
My concern is that people will take today's headline and apply it equally to every property, every mortgage and every neighbourhood. Nationally, September home sales fell 2.3% from August on a seasonally adjusted basis, and the national benchmark price was down 3.4% from a year earlier. Those numbers help explain the cautious tone around Canadian housing, but they only take us so far when we're making a decision about a home here. CREA's September report
Sudbury's September report also showed weakness. The Sudbury Real Estate Board recorded 222 sales, down 22.4% from September last year, with more active inventory. The price figures, though, deserve care. The average sale price fell 7.4% year over year, while the benchmark price fell 1.2%. Those measures answer different questions: the average changes with the mix of homes sold, while the benchmark is designed to track price changes for a typical home. A 7.4% decline in the average does not establish that every Sudbury property lost 7.4% of its value. That distinction matters when you're deciding what to offer or where to set your asking price. SREB's September statistics
Our more recent MLS review adds another layer. In the October 27 data behind my Greater Sudbury Homes Brief, the latest 30-day period recorded 180 sales, compared with 149 in the preceding 30 days. The median sale price moved from $470,000 to $480,750, and median listing time among sold properties shortened from 20 days to 17.5 days. At the same time, the share selling more than $2,000 above the recorded asking price fell from 27.5% to 22.2%. More homes sold, while a smaller proportion cleared that above-asking threshold. To me, that suggests buyers are still participating, but they are making choices about what they will pay. Greater Sudbury Homes Brief
We also need to respect what those numbers can tell us. Our figures use rolling periods from a defined local MLS selection, while the board report covers September across its reporting area. A higher median can reflect a different mix of sales, and a stronger 30-day period does not establish that the broader slowdown has ended. All of those transactions also precede today's announcement. They show how the market entered this decision; they cannot show how buyers have responded to it. I would be careful with either sweeping conclusion that Sudbury is suddenly taking off again or that nothing is selling. Neither helps us assess a particular property very well.
For buyers, today is a reason to refresh the financing numbers. Ask your mortgage professional what has changed for your approval, your payment and your rate hold, then work out what you can comfortably carry with taxes, heating, insurance and maintenance included. If you already have a fixed-rate mortgage, your contractual rate stays the same through its term. With a variable-rate mortgage, the effect depends on your lender's prime rate and your contract. Some payments adjust; with fixed payments, a higher rate can mean more goes toward interest and less toward principal. The details of your own mortgage matter more than a general headline about rates. Financial Consumer Agency of Canada
I would also leave room in the budget for another increase. That does not mean rushing into a purchase to beat December. It means making sure the purchase still works if borrowing becomes more expensive. A home needs to fit your finances beyond the day you make the offer, and having some breathing room is valuable when the direction of rates is uncertain.
For sellers, this reinforces the importance of pricing against the competition buyers can actually choose today. Look at recent comparable sales, current alternatives and the full history of competing listings. A property returning with a new listing number may have been trying to sell for considerably longer than its latest days-on-market figure suggests. That history can matter when assessing both price and negotiating room. If buyers are facing tighter budgets, we need to understand where your property fits among their choices and give them a convincing reason to choose it.
There is encouraging local news on housing supply, too. The October 23 announcement of up to $45.3 million in support for Greater Sudbury, alongside the elimination of residential development charges for three years, is intended to help enable more housing. The city estimates the combined measures could unlock approximately 3,320 homes, although those homes still need to move through development and construction. Lower development costs can help projects proceed, while higher financing costs can make them harder to carry. Both deserve attention when we talk about improving affordability here. Ontario's housing announcement
Looking toward December, I take the Bank's warning about further increases seriously. It has also said it will proceed carefully and make decisions meeting by meeting, so another hike is possible without being certain. I'll be watching whether higher costs spread more broadly and whether our local pickup in sales continues. For Greater Sudbury buyers and sellers, the useful questions remain specific: What is selling? At what price? How long did it really take? And what does the financing look like for the people making the move? Those are the numbers I want on the table before making a decision. Bank of Canada
If you're weighing a move, let's look at what these changes mean for your home, your budget and your next step. You deserve advice grounded in the local market, with someone willing to look beyond the headline and explain what the numbers mean for you.
Expect Moore.
Chad Moore, REALTOR®